After three consecutive 25 bp rate cuts, the BoC slashed the overnight rate by 50 bps this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75%. The market had priced in 90% odds of a 50 bp move, where consensus coalesced. The combined slower-than-expected GDP growth and back-to-back weak inflation reports solidified the calls for a more significant move. The output gap continues to widen, countering the BoC’s forecast in July, pointing to an even more subdued inflation forecast. A 50 bp cut helps to offset that forecast miss by improving growth prospects faster. Even at 3.75%, monetary policy remains restrictive, as the chart shows below. The overnight rate is 145 bps above the September core inflation measure, and headline inflation moved below the 2% target. 

We expect the policy rate to fall to 2.50% by the spring of next year. This morning’s 50 bp cut reinforces speculation of another 50 bp move in December. However, the Bank will likely need to see continued weak economic data and low inflation to prompt another big move. Wage growth remains stubbornly strong, and there might be some lingering concern about reigniting the housing market, especially with mortgage insurance rules poised to change on December 15.

However, the Bank pointed out that lower rates will trigger a rebound in the housing market. According to the Monetary Policy Report (MPR), “Resales and renovations are anticipated to recover as interest rates decline. Renovations should also be supported by a projected rise in house prices. Recent changes to government mortgage insurance rules are expected to bolster housing demand. Although population growth should ease, the level of demand is expected to remain robust and support new construction. Lower interest rates may also facilitate some increase in housing supply by easing financing costs. However, constraints on the amount of land available for new homes, zoning restrictions and a lack of skilled labour are expected to limit the pace of construction, particularly over the near term. As a result, growth in housing demand is expected to outpace increases in supply. Unlike other sectors of the economy that are experiencing excess supply, the housing market is projected to remain tight. House prices are expected to rise, but the pace of increases will likely be restrained because some home buyers will face affordability challenges”.

Effective tomorrow, the prime rate will fall to 5.95%, lowering floating-rate mortgage rates. According to Mortgage Logic News, the lowest nationally advertised 5-year fixed rate is down 10 bps this week to 4.09%.

In its policy statement, the Governing Council reduced its forecast for growth in the second half of this year to 1.75%. Third-quarter GDP growth was revised to 1.5% from 2.8% in the July MPR. Inflation has improved faster than expected, ending the year at 2.1%, with core inflation at 2.3% and falling further in 2025.

Bottom Line

Today’s action is great news for the Canadian economy and housing activity. Market participants are now expecting home resales to pick up sharply in the first quarter of next year. The coming spring housing season should be robust, boosting sales and prices.

Dr. Sherry Cooper

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Home sales registered on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver1 declined 3.8 per cent year over year in September, suggesting recent reductions in borrowing costs are having a limited effect in spurring demand so far.

Sales

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR)2 reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,852 in September 2024, a 3.8 per cent decrease from the 1,926 sales recorded in September 2023. This was 26 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,502).

"Real estate watchers have been monitoring the data for signs of renewed strength in demand in response to recent mortgage rate reductions, but the September figures don’t offer the signal that many are watching for."Andrew Lis, GVR director of economics and data analytics

Sales continue trending roughly 25 per cent below the ten-year seasonal average in the region, which, believe it or not, is a trend that has been in place for a few years now. With the September data, sales are now tracking slightly below our forecast however, but we remain optimistic sales will still end 2024 higher than 2023.”

Listings

There were 6,144 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in September 2024. This represents a 12.8 per cent increase compared to the 5,446 properties listed in September 2023. This was also 16.7 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (5,266).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,932, a 31.2 per cent increase compared to September 2023 (11,382). This is 24.2 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (12,027).

Sales-to-active listings ratio

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2024 is 12.8 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 9.1 per cent for detached homes, 16.9 per cent for attached, and 14.6 per cent for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“With some buyers choosing to stay on the sidelines, inventory levels have sustained the healthy gains achieved over the course of this year, providing much more selection to anyone searching for a home,” Lis said.

With all this choice available, prices have trended sideways for the past few months. The September figures, however, are now showing modest declines across all segments on a month over month basis. This downward pressure on prices is a result of sales not keeping pace with the number of newly listed properties coming to market, which has now put the overall market on the cusp of a buyers’ market. With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines.”

By property type

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,179,700. This represents a 1.8 per cent decrease over September 2023 and a 1.4 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.

Sales of detached homes in September 2024 reached 516, a 9.8 per cent decrease from the 572 detached sales recorded in September 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,022,200. This represents a 0.5 per cent increase from September 2023 and a 1.3 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.

Sales of apartment homes reached 940 in September 2024, a 4.9 per cent decrease compared to the 988 sales in September 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $762,000. This represents a 0.8 per cent decrease from September 2023 and a 0.8 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.

Attached home sales in September 2024 totalled 378, a 7.4 per cent increase compared to the 352 sales in September 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,099,200. This represents a 0.5 per cent decrease from September 2023 and a 1.8 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.

1 Areas covered by Greater Vancouver REALTORS® include: Bowen Island, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

2 On February 12, 2024, The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver changed its organizational name to Greater Vancouver REALTORS®.