Home prices continue to rise in Metro Vancouver’s housing market to kick off the summer

Continuing the trend that has emerged in the housing market this year, the benchmark price for all home types in Metro Vancouver¹ increased in June as home buyer demand butted up against a limited inventory of homes for sale in the region.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales² in the region totalled 2,988 in June 2023, a 21.1 per cent increase from the 2,467 sales recorded in June 2022. This was 8.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,269).

“The market continues to outperform expectations across all segments, but the apartment segment showed the most relative strength in June,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “The benchmark price of apartment homes is almost cresting the peak reached in 2022, while sales of apartments are now above the region’s ten-year seasonal average. This uniquely positions the apartment segment relative to the attached and detached segments where sales remained below the ten-year seasonal averages.”

There were 5,348 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in June 2023. This represents a 1.3 per cent increase compared to the 5,278 homes listed in June 2022. This was 3.1 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (5,518).

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,990, a 7.9 per cent decrease compared to June 2022 (10,842) This was 17.4 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (12,091).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for June 2023 is 31.4 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 20.9 per cent for detached homes, 38.5 per cent for townhomes, and 39.4 per cent for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“Despite elevated borrowing costs, there continues to be too little resale inventory available relative to the pool of buyers in Metro Vancouver. This is the fundamental reason we continue to see prices increase month over month across all segments,” Lis said. “With the benchmark price for apartments now standing at $767,000, we repeat our call to the provincial government to adjust the $525,000 threshold exempting first-time home buyers from the Property Transfer Tax to better reflect the price of entry-level homes in our region. This is a simple policy adjustment that could help more first-time buyers afford a home right now.” 

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,203,000. This represents a 2.4 per cent decrease over June 2022 and a 1.3 per cent increase compared to May 2023.

Sales of detached homes in June 2023 reached 848, a 28.3 per cent increase from the 661 detached sales recorded in June 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,991,300. This represents a 3.2 per cent decrease from June 2022 and a 1.9 per cent increase compared to May 2023.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,573 in June 2023, an 18.6 per cent increase compared to the 1,326 sales in June 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $767,000. This represents a 0.5 per cent increase from June 2022 and a 0.8 per cent increase compared to May 2023.

Attached home sales in June 2023 totalled 547, a 17.6 per cent increase compared to the 465 sales in June 2022. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,098,900. This represents a one per cent decrease from June 2022 and a 1.5 per cent increase compared to May 2023.

Download the June 2023 stats package.

It's a Close Call Which Way the Bank Will Go

Employment growth last month came in at a whopping 60,000 jobs, tripling expectations, and most of those net new jobs were for full-time workers. As our population grows, more people are available to fill job vacancies. Employment rose in wholesale and retail trade (+33,000), manufacturing (+27,000), health care and social assistance (+21,000) and transportation and warehousing (+10,000). Meanwhile, declines were recorded in construction (-14,000), educational services (-14,000) and agriculture (-6,000).

The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 5.4% in June, following a similar increase (+0.2 percentage points) in May. The increase brought the rate to its highest level since February 2022 (when it was also 5.4%). There were 1.1 million people unemployed in June, an increase of 54,000 (+4.9%) in the month.

The population grew by 0.3%, the labour force rose by 0.5%, and employment increased by 0.3%. The participation rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 65.7%.

Despite the successive increases in May and June, the unemployment rate in Canada remained below its pre-COVID-19 pandemic average of 5.7% recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.

One thing the Bank of Canada will be happy about is that wage inflation slowed to 4.2% on a year-over-year basis following four consecutive months of more than 5% wage growth. This is good news for the Bank, but not good enough given that wages are still rising at more than double the inflation target of 2.0%. 

Bottom Line

Traders are now betting that there is a 70% chance that the Bank of Canada will hike the policy rate by 25 basis points on July 12, taking the overnight rate to 5.0%. Given that many consumers are feeling the pinch of rising prices, and the June housing data appears to have softened, at least in the GTA, the Bank could surprise us again by remaining on the sidelines. After all, inflation fell to 3.4% in May, and the Business Outlook Survey softened broadly, particularly regarding hiring intentions. 

In contrast, the latest monthly GDP report showed an uptick in growth in May. Remembering that Q1 growth came in nearly one percentage point above the Bank's forecast in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and all six Canadian bank economists are forecasting a rate hike, the Bank might want to take out a bit more insurance that inflation will return to the 2% target next year. 

A fresh MPR will accompany next week's policy announcement and press conference. It's unclear which way the Bank will go, but the odds favour a rate hike.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca