Canadian Inflation Stronger Than Expected

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in September, up from a 1.9% increase in August. The acceleration in headline inflation from 1.9% in August was also larger than the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which was 2.2%.

On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices fell less in September (-4.1%) compared with August (-12.7%) due to a base-year effect, leading to an acceleration in headline inflation. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.6% in September, after increasing 2.4% in August.

A slower year-over-year decline in prices for travel tours (-1.3%) and a larger increase in prices for food purchased from stores (+4.0%) also contributed to the upward pressure in the all-items CPI in September.

The CPI rose 0.1% month over month in September. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.4%.

Gasoline prices fell 4.1% year over year in September after a 12.7% decrease in August. The smaller year-over-year decline was primarily due to a base-year effect. In September 2024, prices fell 7.1% month over month due, in part, to lower crude oil prices amid growing concerns of weaker economic growth, particularly in China and the United States. In September 2025, gasoline prices rose 1.9% monthly following refinery disruptions and maintenance in the United States and Canada, which put upward pressure on prices. 

On a year-over-year basis, prices for travel tours fell 1.3% in September following a 9.3% decline in August. Despite typically declining on a month-over-month basis in September, travel tour prices rose 4.6% in the month. This was a result of higher prices for destinations in Europe and some parts of the United States, as significant events in destination cities put upward pressure on hotel prices.

Consumers paid 4.0% more year over year for food purchased from stores in September, following a 3.5% increase in August. Faster price growth was driven by increased prices for fresh vegetables (+1.9% in September, compared with -2.0% in August) and sugar and confectionery (+9.2% in September, compared with +5.8% in August).

Year-over-year grocery price inflation has generally trended upward since its most recent low in April 2024 (+1.4%). Grocery items contributing to the general acceleration included fresh or frozen beef and coffee, both due, in part, to lower supply.

Tuition fees, priced annually in September, increased 1.7% in 2025 compared with a 1.8% increase in 2024. Aside from 2019, the 2025 increase was the smallest since 1976, when the index was unchanged (0.0%).

In 2025, students from Prince Edward Island (+4.7%) experienced the largest price increase. At the same time, students from Nova Scotia (+1.1%) and Ontario (+1.1%) had the smallest increase, coinciding with a freeze on tuition fees in both provinces.

Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes recently warned that traders may be putting too much emphasis on its two “preferred” core inflation measures, the so-called trim and median gauges.

In September, both CPI-median and CPI-trim came in hotter than economists were expecting. The average of these metrics was 3.15% in September, while the three-month moving average accelerated to 2.7%.

Mendes said the central bank is weighing a broader suite of gauges that suggest underlying price pressures are closer to its 2% target.

Shelter inflation rose 2.6% on an annual basis, while CPI excluding food and energy was 2.4%. CPI excluding eight volatile components and indirect taxes was 2.8%, up from 2.6%.

CPI excluding taxes accelerated to 2.9% from 2.4% the previous month.

The share of components within the consumer price index basket that are rising 3% and higher — another key metric that policymakers are watching closely — declined slightly to 38%.

All 10 Canadian provinces saw prices rising at a faster year-over-year pace in September compared with August. Quebec experienced the steepest price growth, reaching 3.3% last month.

Rent prices also accelerated nationally to 4.8%, led by a 9.8% increase in Quebec. Slower rent price growth of 1.8% in British Columbia moderated the national increase, the report noted.

Bottom Line

The report shows that underlying price pressures remain elevated, raising questions about how quickly the central bank can proceed with rate cuts to aid the tariff-hit economy. 

Still, the acceleration in headline and most core measures was driven by a gasoline price base-year effect — a possible reason for analysts to look through the print.

Traders in overnight swaps pared bets on a rate cut next week, lowering the odds to about 65% from close to 80% before the report. The loonie jumped to the day’s high against the US dollar. Canadian debt fell across the curve, with the two-year yield rising about three basis points to a session high at 2.38%.

The ongoing trade war with the US drove the Bank of Canada to lower its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.5% in September, marking the first cut in six months.

During their deliberations last month, some members of its governing council argued that more support would likely be needed given the softness in the economy, notably if the labour market weakened further.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem recently described Canada’s labour market as “soft,” despite data showing the country added 60,400 jobs in September, which only partially reversed a decline of more than 100,000 positions over the previous two months.

The central bank will have to weigh recent economic weakness against concerns about firm core inflation over the past few months. The BoC will cut the overnight policy rate again by 25 bps to 2.25%, responding to its concern for the sectors hardest hit by tariffs, along with a housing market suffering from negative household psychology and overbuilding in the GTA and GVA.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Welcome to this Penthouse in the heart of Kitsilano. Just steps to the vibrant West 4th avenue and all its cafes, boutiques, grocery stores, restaurants and pretty much anything you wnt, including a short walk to Kits Beach and pool. 2 bedrooms and 2 bath home with views to the North Shore, 2 parking and a locker.  Great for upsizers or downsizers.

The Bank of Canada has just lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% — the lowest in three years. This move is big news for our real estate market here in Vancouver. Let’s look at what’s driving the cut and, more importantly, what it means if you’re buying or selling.

Why the Rate Was Cut

• Slowing economy: GDP slipped ~1.6% in Q2.

• Job market softening: Rising unemployment is a concern.

• Inflation cooling: Still a touch high at the core, but trending down.

• Global uncertainties: Tariffs and trade pressures are weighing on growth.

What It Means for Buyers

• Lower borrowing costs: Variable-rate mortgages and loans tied to prime should ease.

• Fixed-rate relief: Fixed mortgages may dip as bond yields adjust.

• More purchasing power: Lower payments could let you aim higher or simply buy with more comfort.

• Increased competition: More buyers entering the market means hot listings could see multiple offers — being pre-approved is key.

What It Means for Sellers

• Bigger buyer pool: Lower rates invite more demand.

• Quicker sales: Homes may move faster, especially in desirable neighbourhoods.

• Stronger pricing power: More buyers can mean stronger offers — though local inventory levels matter.

• Great timing to move up: If you’re selling and buying again, lower rates make upgrading more attractive.

A Few Things to Keep in Mind

• This is a modest cut — it helps, but affordability challenges remain.

• Fixed rates don’t always move right away. Locking in now could be a smart hedge.

• Rate cuts can reverse if inflation heats up or the economy worsens.

• Every market is different — what we’re seeing in Vancouver might not mirror other regions.

This rate cut creates momentum. Whether you’re thinking of buying, selling, or simply watching the market, it’s a great time to explore your options.

If you’d like to know how this change impacts your specific situation, let’s connect — I’d be happy to walk you through the numbers.

Wendy McLeod, Vancouver Realtor — your trusted guide in every market.